最近国内多地出现聚集性疫情，加之国际地缘政治不稳定原因显著增加，国内企业生产经营活动遭到肯定影响。3月份，制造业采购经理指数、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数均降至缩短区间，表明国内经济总体景气水平有所回落。但剖析人士仍对中国经济中长期前景持乐观态度。专家预测，将来几个月，政府将颁布更有力的财政政策和更宽松的货币政策，进一步提振经济增长。
Chinas manufacturing activities contracted in March for the first time in five months due to various uncertainties1 and negative impacts from home and abroad.
受国内外多重不稳定原因影响，3月份中国制造业活动出现五个月来的初次缩短。
However, analysts2 and officials remain upbeat about the medium- and long-term prospects3 of the Chinese economy, as the country still has room for macro policy fine-tuning and adjustments.
然而，剖析人士和官员对中国经济中长期前景仍持乐观态度，觉得中国宏观经济政策仍有作为空间。
They expected a stronger fiscal4 policy and more easing monetary5 measures in the coming months to further shore up growth, including tax reductions, more infrastructure6 investment, and interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts.
他们预测，将来几个月，政府将颁布更有力的财政政策和更宽松的货币政策，包含减税、增加基础设施投资、下调存贷款基准利率和存款筹备金率，进一步提振经济增长。
The purchasing managers index for Chinas manufacturing sector7 stood at 49.5 in March, compared with 50.2 in February, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed, slipping into contraction8 after staying in expansionary territory for four consecutive9 months. The 50-point mark separates growth from contraction.
国家统计局数据显示，3月份中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.5，而2月份为50.2。中国制造业PMI在连续四个月维持扩张态势后，开始下滑。PMI以50点为荣枯分水线。
The nonmanufacturing PMI, which covers the services and construction sectors10, was at 48.4 versus11 51.6 in February, slipping into contraction for the first time in seven months, according to the NBS.
依据国家统计局数据，涵盖服务业和建筑业的非制造业PMI为48.4，2月份为51.6，七个月来初次出现缩短。
Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician with the NBS, said the resurgence12 in COVID-19 cases that affected13 some areas has dealt a blow to service sectors, such as transportation, accommodations and catering14.
国家统计局高级统计师赵庆河表示，国内部分区域疫情出现反弹，给交通运输业和餐饮行业等服务行业带来冲击。
For manufacturers, the resurgence has affected the production and operation of some enterprises, and the escalating15 geopolitical tensions led to a decline in or the cancellation16 of export orders, Zhao said.
赵庆河称，疫情反复使部分制造业企业的生产经营遭到影响，不断升级的地缘政治紧张局势致使出口订单降低或取消。
Zhao added that midstream and downstream enterprises are also facing pressure from the rising cosplayts of raw materials, with surging commodity prices clouding the outlook.
他表示，中下游企业也面临着原材料本钱上涨的重压，大宗产品价格大幅上涨给行业前景蒙上阴影。
However, businesses remained upbeat about future business prospects, Zhao said. The enterprises surveyed said that suppressed demand and production would gradually recover with the governments effective measures to control the pandemic, and the market is likely to rebound17.
不过，赵庆河表示，企业对将来的商业前景仍持乐观态度。调查企业反映，伴随疫情得到有效控制，受抑制的产需将会逐步恢复，市场有望回暖。
Despite the downward pressures, Luo Zhiheng, chief economist18 at Yuekai Securities, highlighted that the high-tech19 manufacturing PMI had stayed in expansionary territory, saying this indicates the steady progress of economic structural20 transformation21 and high-quality development.
粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒强调，尽管面临经济下行重压，但高科技制造业PMI一直处于扩张区间，这表明经济结构转型和优质进步稳步推进。
Luo said the current economic situation requires a proactive fiscal policy, such as promoting the issuance of local government special bonds to accelerate infrastructure construction and stabilize22 investment, and more efforts should also be made to ensure the basic livelihood23 of people affected by COVID outbreaks.
罗志恒觉得，目前经济形势下需要采取积极的财政政策，譬如加快地方政府专项债券发行，推进基础设施建设和稳定投资，还应该采取更多手段，保障受疫情影响区域人民群众的基本生活。
Wu Chaoming, deputy director of the Chasing International Economic Institute, estimated that the manufacturing PMI reading may expand above the 50-point mark in the following months with the help of the governments effective measures to control the pandemic and stabilize growth.
财新国际经济研究院副院长吴朝明估计，伴随政府采取有效手段控制疫情和稳定增长，将来几个月制造业PMI或许会重回50点以上。
Experts said the intensifying24 economic headwinds could persuade the Peoples Bank of China, the countrys central bank, to launch near-term easing measures such as cutting the reserve requirement ratio and policy interest rates.
专家表示，为应付经济进步所面临的重压，中国人民银行或许会推行短期宽松政策，下调存款筹备金率和政策利率。
At its first-quarter monetary policy committee meeting, the PBOC declared its determination to stabilize the economy by pledging more substantial support for the real economy and efforts to improve the transmission mechanism25 of monetary policy, according to a statement released on Wednesday.
3月30日消息称，在中国人民银行货币政策委员会2022年首季例会上，中国人民银行宣布其决心稳定经济，承诺为实体经济提供更有力支持，进一步疏通货币政策传导机制。
The statement highlighted the emerging challenges posed by escalating geopolitical tensions and more frequent domestic COVID-19 outbreaks, in addition to the lingering pressures from shrinking demand, supply shocks and weaker expectations.
中国人民银行声明强调，目前国内疫情发生频次有所增多，地缘政治冲突升级，经济进步面临需要缩短、供给冲击、预期转弱三重重压。
Yu Yongding, a senior economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said China should stick with a fairly expansionary monetary policy to ensure the stabilization26 of growth, in spite of overseas central banks interest rate hikes and potentially higher inflationary pressure.
中国社会科学院高级经济学家余永定表示，尽管国外央行加息，通胀重压可能上升，中国应坚持扩张性货币政策，以确保经济增长稳定。
The risk of inflation has risen due to changes in the international environment. But monetary tightening27 wont be the sensible solution to inflation caused by supply shocks, Yu said.
他表示：国际环境的变化致使通胀风险加剧。但货币紧缩并非解决提供冲击导致的通货膨胀的明智方法。
If inflationary pressure worsens amid restrictions28 on the global commodity supply, responsive measures other than monetary policy should be taken, as tightening monetary policy in such circumstances risks triggering deflation, said Yu, who is also a former member of the PBOCs monetary policy committee.
余永定曾任中国人民银行货币政策委员会委员，他觉得，假如在全球产品提供遭到限制的状况下通胀重压加剧，则应采取货币政策以外的应付手段，由于在这样的情况下收紧货币政策大概引发通货紧缩。
It is advisable for the PBOC to further ease credit conditions to tide over small and medium-sized enterprises amid difficulties while supporting infrastructure investment by reducing the financing cosplayts of related government bonds, he added.
余永定还表示，中国人民银行宜进一步放宽信贷条件，以帮助中小微型企业渡过难关，同时通过减少有关政府债券的筹资本钱来支持基础设施投资。
